Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 119.362406 137.352562 157.799631 182.897404 213.060758 248.379686 293.209776
2025-12-14 96.794642 119.631102 148.004893 186.349561 237.592153 304.841874 401.702132
2025-12-21 81.793692 106.331461 138.833897 186.002264 254.366487 352.575306 509.603403
2025-12-28 75.020007 101.802082 139.283144 197.199303 287.533782 428.709503 678.427379
2026-01-04 69.179540 97.287242 138.484431 205.665207 317.430117 505.902858 872.294728
2026-01-11 64.085156 92.927514 136.929242 212.176075 344.849251 584.866225 1095.454977
2026-01-18 59.177924 88.092792 133.756832 215.169624 366.362171 658.022475 1333.458853
2026-01-25 54.517371 83.015495 129.395725 215.182558 382.091903 723.575103 1580.295660
2026-02-01 49.729515 77.166034 122.956832 210.332855 387.275356 768.414547 1795.971329
2026-02-08 45.537562 71.859799 116.794009 204.990356 390.278196 809.048265 2018.521207
2026-02-15 41.973848 67.266088 111.350106 200.181438 393.375668 850.572033 2263.173894
2026-02-22 41.226179 67.471176 114.538836 212.897409 437.466948 1005.076034 2941.995739
2026-03-01 39.035265 64.979007 112.596523 215.125099 458.902621 1110.579383 3537.341259
2026-03-08 37.302196 63.160451 111.742811 219.587226 486.978834 1245.262543 4350.283554
2026-03-15 35.212751 60.481193 108.900638 219.213043 502.803598 1349.904096 5130.729924
2026-03-22 34.719568 60.772849 112.022608 232.934154 559.498063 1608.117041 6908.024233
2026-03-29 33.904693 60.354270 113.619706 243.327297 609.926747 1870.100315 9066.840687
2026-04-05 32.921822 59.506355 114.201934 251.332865 655.727287 2139.368858 11708.959688
2026-04-12 31.660922 57.982957 113.148507 255.017452 689.373991 2379.316073 14598.176698
2026-04-19 30.225851 55.982228 110.829724 255.033397 711.356578 2582.739962 17630.372230
2026-04-26 28.486278 53.214814 106.518538 249.065561 711.857447 2690.229857 20036.319319
2026-05-03 26.846095 50.543816 102.196253 242.498841 708.936754 2782.067703 22541.988073
2026-05-10 25.379164 48.142461 98.293221 236.594841 707.172388 2880.973081 25440.598939